The United States government has announced a successful agreement with Iran on a peace deal, accompanied by the usual dose of self-praise and bravado by Donald Trump. In a highly synchronized move, the White House posted the official announcement by Trump, declaring, “The deal with the Islamic Republic of Iran is now complete. Congratulations to all.”

Unsurprisingly, his post on Truth Social followed his usual style, full of bravado and self-glorification bordering on narcissism that the world is used to by now. For the public record, Trump’s post on Truth Social read exactly as follows:

“The deal with the Islamic Republic of Iran is now complete. Congratulations to all. I hereby fully authorize the toll-free opening of the Strait of Hormuz, and simultaneously herewith, authorize the immediate removal of the United States Naval blockade. Ships of the world, start your engines. Let the oil flow.”

To any casual reader, Trump’s statement reads as if the Strait of Hormuz was closed by some evil powers who were demanding a heavy, impossible toll, and the US President sent his Navy to defeat the evil powers and open the Strait, going to war for the global good like a fairy tale king.

However, for a person who has observed the developments of the conflict carefully, this almost reads like a crass joke. Who is he congratulating? What victory is he so happy about? The reality is that in his desperation to post anything that looked like winning, Trump seems to have forgotten an important fact. The Strait was already open, peaceful, functional and toll-free before the war was started by the US and Israeli forces against Iran.

That truth remains stark and widely known, regardless of what Trump posts on his personal social media, ironically named "Truth Social." The factual timeline reveals that the Strait was open, peaceful, and was handling 25% of the Global oil and LNG trade before Trump started bombing Iran on February 28. Iran had only closed and mined it "in response" to U.S. and Israeli strikes. Therefore, the very "crisis" that Trump is claiming to have solved is one HE created. Mr. Donald Trump, the Strait of Hormuz was open and toll-free before you started the war against Iran, so what victory exactly are you celebrating?

What Was the Point of This War?

Before this conflict endangered commercial shipping in the world’s most energy-focused trade route, tankers moved smoothly through the Strait with no tolls imposed on routine traffic. The breakdown of peace followed a clear sequence: after the U.S. and Israel started bombing, Iran retaliated by shutting the waterway down and attacking vessels, which then prompted the U.S. to impose its own blockade.

In hindsight, that "blockade" itself was a joke. The U.S. military was effectively countering an alleged blockade by claiming to be blockading the hell out of the blockade that was never blockaded in the first place before they came to bomb Iran.

The consequences for the global economy were immediate and severe. Oil and gas prices spiked dramatically, and global supplies through the entire route were disrupted through the Gulf to India, Singapore, Thailand, China, Japan, and beyond. Now, this newly announced deal claims to simply restore pre-war conditions and grant toll-free access again, after months of unnecessary disruption.

Trump actively wants the world to believe that this is some kind of victory that he has scored. But he is not fooling anyone. This is not a win; this is a desperate cleanup for a mess that the U.S. has created.

The True Winner: How Moscow Capitalized on Washington's Misstep

If we look at who actually won and who benefited the most from the war, the answer can be summed up in one word: Russia.

The Russian Federation emerged as the biggest gainer in this war in purely economic and even some strategic terms. The energy supply disruption from the Gulf nations caused Russia to pocket a massive windfall, because Arab oil was blocked in the Strait, and President Putin had a lot of oil to sell.

The closure of the Hormuz choke point drove global oil prices sharply higher, boosting Moscow’s export revenues by billions of dollars. In an ironic twist, the U.S. had to waive its own sanctions on Russian oil because their military actions had created a severe supply crisis in the Strait of Hormuz. Some conservative estimates say Russian earnings may have been several tens of billions of dollars during this period. The spike in Urals crude prices, combined with this temporary U.S. sanctions easing on Russian oil, gave Putin an unexpected economic gift that helped sustain operations elsewhere.

To look directly at the financial data:

• In February, Russia’s discounted Urals crude was selling at $45 per barrel.
• By mid-March, thanks to the diplomatic and military decisions of the USA, it was selling at $90 per barrel.

That staggering jump accounts for just the Urals crude. Since the Iran war disrupted LNG supplies from the Gulf too, Russia gained additionally from sudden LNG sales. In March 2026 alone, Russia’s oil exports were reported to have surged by $9.3 billion month-on-month. According to data tracked by international agencies, Russia’s oil and gas revenues were already up by 39% compared to 2025 as of May this year.

Retaining the Regime: Trump's Failed Attempt at Iranian Leadership Change

A core objective of this administration's foreign policy was clear: Trump wanted Regime change in Iran. Yet, after months of devastating conflict, all he did was replace one Khamenei with another.

The Iranian theocratic regime that the U.S. beats drums about stays entirely intact. In fact, political analysts note that it even strengthened in key ways. U.S. strikes successfully killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, but his son Mojtaba Khamenei was immediately declared the successor. Mojtaba is widely stated to be even more of a hardliner than his predecessor, and he maintains significantly better ties with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) than his deceased father.

While Mojtaba’s succession marked a dynastic-style transition the regime had long avoided, it ultimately consolidated power around internal security forces and effectively suppressed domestic opposition. No internal collapse occurred, and no fundamental change happened. Officially, Iran is still ruled by a theocratic regime.

The Terms of De-Escalation: Iran Ends Up Gaining

When evaluating the fine print, Iran ends up "gaining" as the deal details suggest. The agreement that has reportedly been agreed upon between the U.S. and Iran seems to be giving some much-needed breathing space to Iran.

According to reports by Iranian state media Mehr News, Iran’s assets are to be unfrozen, with a potential release of up to $24 billion in credit lines and cash transfers. Furthermore, Iran secures a 60-day window for nuclear talks, providing potential room for negotiation and a temporary sanction waiver on its oil sales. Latest updates indicate the U.S. is going to release $12 billion of Iran’s frozen assets before the final signing of the deal has even occurred.

Basically, the very regime that Trump failed to change will now get a massive, renewed revenue flow. Additionally, Iranian state media is reporting that the deal includes a $300 billion reconstruction plan sponsored by the U.S. and its allies, apart from the total withdrawal of U.S. forces from the region.

Calculating the Heavy Losses Borne by the United States

When looking at the final balance sheet, the U.S. seems to have learned nothing at all from the 20-year-old lesson called Afghanistan. Washington has engaged in another expensive war on faraway shores that killed their soldiers and destroyed billions of dollars in military assets, while their leaders kept thumping chests and claiming victory in outcomes that are basically "back to square one."

The financial and human toll is devastating:

The loss of specialized military hardware is where the U.S. setback is most serious; high-tier assets like the THAAD systems will take years to rebuild. These losses represent a massive amount of U.S. taxpayer dollars that have been sunk into another pointless war. Meanwhile, the broader economic ripple effects on the U.S. and its allies are yet to reveal their full impact. Apparently, this massive expenditure of blood and treasure was all for a deal that largely resets the board to exactly where it was before the fighting started.

The Bottom Line

Donald Trump is currently touting the de-escalation and falling oil prices as some sort of vindication for his “peace through strength” and “America First” slogans. However, the enriched uranium stockpile that Iran reportedly had remains an issue completely deferred to future talks.

The Iranian regime survived under brand-new management, Russia has earned billions of dollars, and America is bearing the entire bill in blood, ultra-expensive assets, and a depleted treasury.

The entire thing looks like a crass joke, played on the American public and also on the whole world. It represents a pointless, destructive loop that created a severe problem through deliberate escalation, claimed hundreds of innocent civilian lives, and caused economic hardships for billions of people around the world through the disruption of critical supply routes.

The Strait that was open and toll-free before is hopefully going to be open and toll-free again. Hopefully, the crude, violent, and thoroughly pointless war that the Trump administration imposed on the rest of the world will come to an end soon, with a global bully congratulating itself like a clown.

However, experienced observers know that caution is required. Another undeniable fact is that similar alleged "peace deal" agreements have been declared before, Israel has objected before, and the talks have collapsed before. Unless an actual deal has been signed and sealed and U.S. forces are fully back in their own waters, a lot can still happen. Conflicting statements, claims, and counterclaims are already flying, and Israel has already objected, again.